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dc.contributor.authorKribs, Christopher
dc.contributor.authorPelosse, Perrine
dc.contributor.authorGinoux, Marine
dc.contributor.authorRabinovich, Jorge E.
dc.contributor.authorGourbiere, Sebastien
dc.contributor.authorMenu, Frederic
dc.date.accessioned2016-06-10T12:42:30Z
dc.date.available2016-06-10T12:42:30Z
dc.date.issued2013
dc.identifier.citationPublished in the PLos ONE 8(8) e70830, August 2013en_US
dc.identifier.issn1932-6203
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10106/25713
dc.description.abstractInsects are known to display strategies that spread the risk of encountering unfavorable conditions, thereby decreasing the extinction probability of genetic lineages in unpredictable environments. To what extent these strategies influence the epidemiology and evolution of vector-borne diseases in stochastic environments is largely unknown. In triatomines, the vectors of the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas’ disease, juvenile development time varies between individuals and such variation most likely decreases the extinction risk of vector populations in stochastic environments. We developed a simplified multi-stage vector-borne SI epidemiological model to investigate how vector riskspreading strategies and environmental stochasticity influence the prevalence and evolution of a parasite. This model is based on available knowledge on triatomine biodemography, but its conceptual outcomes apply, to a certain extent, to other vector-borne diseases. Model comparisons between deterministic and stochastic settings led to the conclusion that environmental stochasticity, vector risk-spreading strategies (in particular an increase in the length and variability of development time) and their interaction have drastic consequences on vector population dynamics, disease prevalence, and the relative short-term evolution of parasite virulence. Our work shows that stochastic environments and associated risk-spreading strategies can increase the prevalence of vector-borne diseases and favor the invasion of more virulent parasite strains on relatively short evolutionary timescales. This study raises new questions and challenges in a context of increasingly unpredictable environmental variations as a result of global climate change and human interventions such as habitat destruction or vector control.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work has been supported by the French National Research Agency (grant reference ‘‘ANR-08-MIE-007’’), by the National Science Foundation (grant reference ‘‘DMS-1020880’’), and by the Agencia Nacional de Promocio´n Cientı´fica y Tecnolo´ gica of Argentina (grant reference PICT2008-0035). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscripten_US
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherPublic Library of Scienceen_US
dc.subjectHost-pathogen interactionen_US
dc.subjectParasite evolutionen_US
dc.subjectParasitic diseasesen_US
dc.subjectVector-borne diseasesen_US
dc.subjectDisease vectorsen_US
dc.subjectInsect vectorsen_US
dc.subjectEnvironmental epidemiologyen_US
dc.titleInfluence of vectors' risk-spreading strategies and environmental stochasticity on the epidemiology and evolution of vector-borne diseaes: the example of Chagas' diseaseen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.publisher.departmentDepartment of Mathematics, University of Texas at Arlington
dc.identifier.externalLinkDescriptionThe original publication is available at Article DOI
dc.rights.licenseLicensed under Creative Commons, CC BY
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0070830


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