Long-term electric peak demand and capacity resource forecast for Texas, 1992.

Abstract

More than adequate electrical generating capacity exists to meet demand in the short term in Texas. This offers high reliability, but also imposes the cost of plant investments. 'Despite these near-term capacity surpluses, a number of resouroe planning issues deserve prompt attention: l. Alleviate transmission bottlenecks. 2. Moderate near-term rate increases to prevent widespread self' generation or byPass. 3. Scrutinizepromotionalactivities. 4. Examine end-use energy efficiency programs. 5. Research solar and wind technologies. 6. Consider dispersed resources to defer investments in transmission and distribution system uPgrades. The Long-Term Electric Peak Demand and Capacity Resource Forecast for Texas 1992 is designed to provide information and recommendations to policy makers and others interested in the present and future status of the Texas electric power industry. Volume I of this two-volume report provides staFrecommended electricity demand projections for 13 of the state's largest generating utilities and a capacity resource plan for Texas. The economic outlook for Texas, fuel markets, cogeneration activity, demand-side management program impacts, environmental issues, and strategic rate design are highlighted. Substantial emphasis is placed on alternative power sources (particularly purchases from qualifying facilities) and energy efficiency to reduce the rate of growth of peak demand. The current report recognizes the end of the late 1980s economic recession in Texas, yet emphasizes efiiciency improvements as the key to reliable and low-cost electrical services, environmental integrity, and increased economic growth. Volume II summarizes the electricity demand forecasts, energy efficiency plans, and capacity resource plans developed by generating electric utilities and filed at the Commission in December 1991 (or later amended). The technical appendices provide a description of the staffs econometric electricity demand forecasting and resource planning system used to develop the load forecast contained in Volume I, and are available upon request.