Forecasting Success: Using the Texas Risk Assessment System to Predict Early Discharge in a Large Sample of High, Moderate, and Low Risk Offenders

Abstract

Little is known regarding predictive factors that contribute to adults successfully completing felony probation—particularly those who are granted early release. The current study attempts to fill this gap by analyzing data from a large, urban, community supervision and corrections department to examine what predictive factors—as identified by the Texas Risk Assessment System (TRAS) impact successful early release from adult felony probation. Results from multivariate logistic regression models revealed that the TRAS domains of criminal history and education/employment were significant predictors of early dismissal from felony community supervision as was the total TRAS risk score. Additionally, being male and black significantly reduced the odds of early release from felony probation. The ability to capitalize on the areas leading to successful early release promotes greater efficacy in probation supervision strategies and alerts staff to areas where practitioners may have a direct effect on proper supervision techniques to enhance positive behavioral changes in the clients they serve.