Fail to Plan, Plan to Fail: The Effects of Forecasting Valence on Creativity

Abstract

Forecasting is a central component of evaluating creative ideas for their success. Little is known, however, about variables that influence the effectiveness of predicting outcomes while evaluating creative ideas. Previous literature has shown that forecasting prior to implementation improves the creativity of final solutions and vision statements (e.g., Byrne, Shipman, & Mumford, 2010; Dailey & Mumford, 2006; Lonergan, Scott, & Mumford, 2004). The present effort empirically addresses how individuals forecast and why it leads to better creative performance. A total of 146 participants were asked to forecast positive or negative outcomes and subsequently develop an implementation plan for a creative idea. The impact of predicting positive and negative outcomes on creative performance is addressed by considering the attributes of forecasting and how it affects factors considered during implementation planning. Findings revealed that a combination of positive and negative forecasting led to more extensive forecasting, whereas forecasting only positive outcomes decreased its extensiveness. Positive forecasting also resulted in implementation plans that were less extensive – notably, positive forecasts were less focused on competitors and obstacles. The implications of these findings are discussed to understand better the degree forecasting valence affects the focus of certain factors while planning for implementation.