ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON CONSTRUCTION COST AND SCHEDULE OVERRUNS
Abstract
**Please note that the full text is embargoed until 08/01/2024** The construction industry, renowned for its dynamic nature, encountered unprecedented
uncertainties throughout its history. However, the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic served
as a powerful catalyst, underscoring the urgent need for a deeper comprehension of the
challenges it introduced and their potential implications for the industry's future. While
numerous studies have explored this topic, a comprehensive understanding of the specific
factors that disrupted the construction sector during the pandemic remains elusive. To bridge
this knowledge gap, this study identifies, categorizes, and ranks these challenges, while also
proposing effective management strategies to mitigate their detrimental impact on
construction projects.
To lay the groundwork for analysis, a rigorous systematic literature review was conducted,
scrutinizing 97 pertinent publications carefully. This comprehensive review revealed 26
distinct challenges that the construction industry grappled with during the COVID-19
pandemic. Notably, issues such as labor scarcity, project suspensions or slowdowns, force
majeure confusion, and workplace safety concerns featured prominently as recurring themes
in the reviewed literature. In response to these challenges, a range of carefully curated
management strategies is presented, encompassing workforce investment, streamlined
supplier management, prudent legal consultation, and transparent communication practices.
Moreover, the impact of the pandemic extended beyond immediate challenges, as it also led
to a surge in cost overruns and project schedule delays, impacting construction projects across
diverse sectors, organizations, and scales. Curiously, existing literature offered limited
insights into the interplay of variables such as industry size, project type, and organization
category on the extent of these delays. To address this crucial gap in knowledge, a four-step approach was devised, comprising a comprehensive literature search, the development and
distribution of an online survey, and a meticulous quantitative analysis of responses. The
results of this analysis revealed distinct differences in factors contributing to schedule
overruns based on these variables, providing a more nuanced understanding of the challenges
faced by different segments of the construction industry during the pandemic.
Furthermore, in addition to analyzing challenges and existing factors, this study takes a step
further by developing a predictive model using an ordinal logistic regression framework. This
pioneering model seeks to assess the level of impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on
construction cost overruns and project schedule delays. Leveraging the valuable insights
garnered from construction industry professionals via the survey, it was possible to predict
that small-scale industries and contractor-type organizations were disproportionately affected
compared to medium and larger firms, and consultant and owner-type organizations,
respectively.
In conclusion, the COVID-19 pandemic exerted a profound and far-reaching impact on the
construction industry, disrupting supply chains, exacerbating labor shortages, and
necessitating the implementation of new safety protocols. This study not only elucidates the
challenges faced by the construction sector but also arms stakeholders and project managers
with practical strategies to effectively manage the pandemic-induced adversities. By heeding
the insights and recommendations provided in this research, the construction industry can
fortify its resilience and navigate future crises more adeptly, thus ensuring continued
economic growth, employment, and infrastructure development. The development of
predictive models further enhances the understanding and preparedness for potential future
challenges