Long-term electric peak demand and capacity resource forecast for Texas, 1988.

Abstract

Although electric utilities in Texas have entered a period of significant excess generating capacity, a number of planning issues deserve prompt attention. These issues include the future role of cogeneration in Texas, alleviating potential transmission bottlenecks in some areas of the State, the short-term and long-term implications associated with abandoning conservation programs in favor of promotional strategies, the appropriate degree of operating and planning coordination among the State's utilities, better utilization of the transmission system, and the potential for rate design to serve as a resource planning tool. This report is designed to provide information and recommendations to policymakers and others interested in the present and future status of the Texas electric power industry. The first volume of this three volume report of the Commission staff's Long- Term Electric Peak Demand and Capacity Resource Forecast for Texas, 1988 provides recommended electricity demand projections for twelve of the State's largest electric utilities and an independent recommended capacity resource plan for Texas. Fuel markets, cogeneration activity, and the potential loss of industrial loads are discussed along with a number of topics of special interest. The second volume summarizes the electricity demand forecasts, energy efficiency plans, and capacity resource plans developed by Texas generating electric utilities and filed at the Commission in December 1987. The third volume provides a technical description of the staff's Econometric Electricity Demand Forecasting system and other models used by the staff to develop the recommended load forecast presented in this volume. The 1984 and 1986 reports focused on two central themes: 1) the development of load forecasting methodologies, data, and models; and 2) capacity expansion through the construction of utility-owned generating units. The central theme of this 1988 report, in view of the lingering effects of the Texas recession, is how to achieve greater efficiency in the use of the State's electrical resources. Within this framework, substantially more emphasis is directed toward demand-side management approaches, alternative power and energy sources, and system economics. The information presented here attempts to capture the underlying philosophy, as well as the techniques, which are used to address these important issues and provide a focus on anticipated problems and opportunities. It should be emphasized that the projections contained herein were prepared for planning purposes and do not reflect any official policy positions or predictions by the Commission.